When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, some speculated that the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) would turn away from their old imperial overlord. After all, Vladimir Putin’s revanchist obsessions could turn south. China, already an important economic partner of Central Asia, could push for stronger ties. Or the West could try again to lure it into its sphere of influence.
Nearly two and a half years on, the picture is more mixed. All three countries in the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) and the five in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,…
